Social Cache.
A Nemo blog. Dealing with uncommon cents.

Red is the new black? Nope – less is the new black

Everywhere one looked recently on the blogosphere, especially social media blogs, the ever-so-informed pundits were banging out their year end lists around mid-December and by today the 2009 predictions/trends/forecasts lists were rapidly turning from a flurry to a blizzard. [US-based bloggers, especially on the East coast, are panicking as the clock ticks down to Midnight.] So I give thanks for two forecast contrarians – Ana Andjelic and Fred Wilson.

Ana Andjelic runs the I Love Marketing blog where she posted ‘The Problem With Forecasts.’ When a post begins like this: “The end of the year is known for releasing “best of” / “worst of” lists, forecasts, & trends that will “shape” the next year. While I heart lists, it’s the trends that I found real dumb. And no, I am not alone in this. Predictions usually go from plain ridiculous to rather obvious and to those that are there for shock value – “blogging is dead”, “podcasting is dead” that no one but Armano really takes seriously.” You know you’re in for a fun read. She’s spot on.

From there I linked to Fred Wilson’s A VC blog where he posted not a forecast list but a wish list of what he’d like to see happen in 2009. Two interesting wishes are 1. a $1.50 gas tax which I agree with and 2. a request of Apple – “I just want Apple to come out with an aggressively priced touch screen mobile computer that can be used to read books, blogs, watch movies, listen to music, and work as a home remote too. This is a huge opportunity for them and others too.”

And by the way, I found both these blogs via Twitter which I have been using more and more as a business tool lately – finding I can’t live without it these days..

So, having written the above I will now throw caution to the wind and present you with a 2009 forecast that is only marginally tongue in cheek. Here’s my baker’s dozen:

Malcolm is thinking about a new book

01. Malcolm Gladwell will publish another book.
02. The New York Times print edition will continue to arrive on my doorstep.
03. It will be cold and wet when I arrive at the Oregon Coast tomorrow.
04. “Feels free” will take a hold. [I've been waiting for this since my time at Intel in 2000.]
05. The CD business will continue to shrink but the music business will grow.
06. Art will be smaller, leaner, cleaner.
07. Consumer products will be simpler – see the Flip.
08. Socially conscious projects such as public housing will thrive under Obama.
09. Blogs will not die.
10. Twitter will see a huge growth spurt and continue to have growing pains.
11. U2’s new album will be as boring as the last 3 or 4 have been but will sell millions.
12. The rich will continue to cut back on their mistresses.
13. And finally, less is the new black.

Got your own 2009 trends, forecasts or wishes list? Post it in the comments section…

While digging around the web for some ideas on social media that are more subversive, in other words ones that challenge the current model, [given that the current corporate model is "we should start a blog or a Facebook page,"] I came across an article on Marktd.com of a presentation given by Ed Cotton of Influx Insights at the PSFK Conference where he discusses Trends and Inspiration.

Based on the idea that trends are themes and attitudes that can be tracked over time, not fads, Cotton provides a list of 9 inspiration themes: Envy, Improvisation, Combinations, Looking Backwards, Frustration, Timing, White Space, Out of Context, Insight Driven. He then gives some interesting examples.

Envy: Creatives are envious of other creative people. ([For example the Beatles were envious of - and thus inspired by - the Beach Boys.]
Improvisation: You have limited resources and you take what’s around you and do something with it. Let’s play games with trends. [e.g Brian Eno’s Oblique Strategies.]
Looking Backwards – We shouldn’t be slaves to the new. Frank Gehry was inspired by the 1920s movie Metropolis.
Frustration: Steve Jobs was frustrated with our cell phones, thus the iPhone.
Timing: The secret of success lies between “feels right” and outside confirmation. If you wait for the research to tell you you’re right, you’ll miss the boat.
White Space: Method saw white space in cleaning, resulting in the creation of non-toxic, well designed cleaning products.
Out of context: taking the subversive mainstream. Pixar has a college in their building. Take your creatives to places where the trends are, places where they’ll be inspired.
Insight Driven: IDEO noticed that kids hold toothbrushes differently. So instead of towing the line and making kids brushes smaller, they made them fun and easy to hold

The takeaway here is simple – immerse your people into a creative and inspiring environment from which they can learn ways to look at ideas and trends from a different point of view. It fits into Nemo’s methods as we consider our shop a “college” where our employees come to learn not just to work.