Whole Foods - Could They Slip Like Starbucks?
Wednesday, August 6th, 2008
Riding the wave of consumer interest and awareness of healthy and organic foods Whole Foods, the up-market grocery chain, rapidly spread into middle and upper class neighborhoods around the country. Consumers with plenty of discretionary income to spend flocked to its stores and it soon earned itself the sobriquet Whole Paycheck, a phrase the companies executives would like to now remove from common parlance.
With the economy in the dumpster people are now reigning in on discretionary spending and to make matters worse for Whole Foods, consumer interest in organic food appears to be leveling off after several years of double-digit growth, according to the Hartman Group, a market research firm specializing in health and wellness. [Found on NYT]
With Whole Foods stock off 70% since 2006 is this a company that has stumbled like another former leader in the discretionary spending market, Starbucks? The cost of fuel and the high rise in food prices are definitely hurting the consumers pocketbook now they are turning their backs on high-priced grocery chains like Whole Foods.
This is not to say that consumers who are heavily committed to organic foods and are happy to pay a premium for them will stop buying organic. More likely it’s those customers who were attracted to the “idea” of organic, pulled in by savvy marketing from companies who never used the term organic to describe their produce, who will steer away from high-priced organic foods and go back to regular produce at cheaper grocery chains. As everyone jumped on the organic band wagon sales soared but now it is consumers economic woes that are dictating where their groceries monies will be spent. The trend appears to be that meat, produce and dairy that is organic continues to sell but products such as breakfast bars or cereals and other similar food categories labeled organic are now less important to shoppers.
Whole Foods problems do appear to mirror those of Starbucks‘ - they were both once Wall Street darlings whose stocks soared for years, but with aggressive strategies for expansion by building more stores rapidly both chains were unable to maintain their margins and Wall Street punished them. They also relied heavily on customers paying a premium for what they saw as a premium product and that only works in times of prosperity not in an economic downturn.
There is also the hyper-local aspect of consumer habits these days. Farmers Markets and even cooperative shares in small organic farms are becoming very popular these days. These markets and farms offer consumers access to locally grown organic produce at the right price and also the feelgood aspect of supporting their local communities. Think local, eat local may be a phrase that becomes popular but it won’t help a national chain like Whole Foods. Whole Paycheck may very well haunt them and their shareholders.
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